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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.

Iowa St.

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:144.0
Current RPI:144
Expected SOS:40
Current SOS:40
Current Record:13-18
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:4-15
Expected Conf Record:4-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:124
Expected OOC SOS:213


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-18144.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iowa St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Missouri (43.0)SECA74-59L0%0.0
11-13Milwaukee (231.0)HorzH56-74L0%0.0
11-16Appalachian St. (250.0)SBN98-104W100%0.0
11-17Tulsa (89.0)AmerN78-80W100%0.0
11-19Boise St. (50.0)MWCN75-64W100%0.0
11-25Western Illinois (302.0)SumH70-45W100%0.0
12-4Northern Illinois (241.0)MACH94-80W100%0.0
12-7Iowa (157.0)B10H84-78W100%0.0
12-10Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACH78-58W100%0.0
12-16Northern Iowa (138.0)MVCN76-65W100%0.0
12-20Maryland Eastern Shore (346.0)MEACH55-49W100%0.0
12-29Kansas St. (53.0)B12H75-91L0%0.0
1-1Texas (51.0)B12H70-74L0%0.0
1-6Oklahoma St. (88.0)B12A96-87L0%0.0
1-9Kansas (5.0)B12A83-78L0%0.0
1-13Baylor (68.0)B12H75-65W100%0.0
1-17TCU (26.0)B12A96-73L0%0.0
1-20Texas Tech (23.0)B12H70-52W100%0.0
1-22Texas (51.0)B12A73-57L0%0.0
1-27Tennessee (8.0)SECH45-68L0%0.0
1-31West Virginia (27.0)B12H93-77W100%0.0
2-3Baylor (68.0)B12A81-67L0%0.0
2-7Texas Tech (23.0)B12A76-58L0%0.0
2-10Oklahoma (49.0)B12H88-80W100%0.0
2-13Kansas (5.0)B12H77-83L0%0.0
2-17Kansas St. (53.0)B12A78-66L0%0.0
2-21TCU (26.0)B12H83-89L0%0.0
2-24West Virginia (27.0)B12A85-70L0%0.0
2-27Oklahoma St. (88.0)B12H71-80L0%0.0
3-2Oklahoma (49.0)B12A81-60L0%0.0
3-7Texas (51.0)B12N68-64L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iowa St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Iowa St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Iowa St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Iowa St.B1226.3326.3335.8835.88-7.44-7.44
TexasB125.685.6853.3353.330.380.38
West VirginiaB124.244.2471.8871.881.861.86
KansasB124.214.2178.1278.122.372.37
Oklahoma St.B124.194.1954.8454.840.410.41
Kansas St.B124.194.1964.5264.521.221.22
Texas TechB124.194.1974.1974.192.032.03
BaylorB124.144.1455.1755.170.430.43
TCUB124.114.1163.3363.331.101.10
OklahomaB124.114.1158.6258.620.710.71
TulsaAmer1.711.7163.3363.330.460.46
Alcorn St.SWAC1.691.6925.9325.93-0.81-0.81
MissouriSEC1.681.6860.0060.000.340.34
MilwaukeeHorz1.671.6746.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Northern IllinoisMAC1.661.6637.9337.93-0.40-0.40
Northern IowaMVC1.641.6448.2848.28-0.06-0.06
IowaB101.641.6443.7543.75-0.20-0.20
TennesseeSEC1.641.6475.0075.000.820.82
Western IllinoisSum1.641.6434.7834.78-0.50-0.50
Appalachian St.SB1.611.6143.3343.33-0.22-0.22
Boise St.MWC1.611.6175.8675.860.830.83
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.611.6117.2417.24-1.06-1.06
KentuckySEC0.220.2270.5970.590.090.09
Texas A&MSEC0.220.2262.5062.500.060.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.220.2224.1424.14-0.11-0.11
Texas SouthernSWAC0.210.2144.1244.12-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.Amer0.200.2078.1278.120.120.12
VanderbiltSEC0.200.2037.5037.50-0.05-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.200.2067.6567.650.070.07
Oral RobertsSum0.190.1928.5728.57-0.08-0.08
AlabamaSEC0.180.1855.8855.880.020.02
MississippiSEC0.170.1737.5037.50-0.04-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.170.1780.0080.000.100.10
AmericanPat0.160.1620.0020.00-0.09-0.09
NevadaMWC0.150.1579.4179.410.090.09
GeorgiaSEC0.150.1554.5554.550.010.01
MichiganB100.150.1579.4179.410.090.09
SouthernSWAC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.1384.3884.380.090.09
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
SMUAmer0.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.130.138.008.00-0.11-0.11
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.120.1273.3373.330.050.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
ButlerBE0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1112.5012.50-0.08-0.08
Ball St.MAC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
DrakeMVC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
FloridaSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
WisconsinB100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
OaklandHorz0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
UCFAmer0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
VCUA100.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
LipscombASun0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
Arizona St.P120.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
PittsburghACC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IUPUIHorz0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
TulaneAmer0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
UNLVMWC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
YaleIvy0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
OregonP120.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
PortlandWCC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
XavierBE0.080.0884.8584.850.050.05
Chicago St.WAC0.080.083.333.33-0.07-0.07
Little RockSB0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
MemphisAmer0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
BelmontOVC0.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0715.6215.62-0.05-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
GonzagaWCC0.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
DenverSum0.070.0746.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.069.689.68-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ValparaisoMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0532.3532.35-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
TempleAmer0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
USCP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
MarylandB100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
IndianaB100.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Penn St.B100.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
NJITASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
WashingtonP120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.036.676.67-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
PennIvy0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
DavidsonA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ElonCAA0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
FurmanSC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Michigan St.B100.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01